The assignment involves analyzing a decision model provided in Excel worksheets. Key tasks include:
- Programming the Decision Model
- Use the provided structure and data for a stylized testing intervention.
- Performing Sensitivity Analysis
- Assess how different inputs influence the model’s outcomes.
- Reporting Results
- Write a short report summarizing findings from the model and analysis.
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Submission Details
- Report Word Limit: Up to 1,000 words, divided into:
- Results (~800 words): Present base case results and sensitivity analysis.
- Conclusions (~200 words): Provide decision-making insights based on the analysis.
- References: Use Harvard Referencing Style consistently.
- Formatting Guidelines:
- Use clear headings, tables, and figures where necessary.
- Ensure tables and figures contribute to the analysis and are legible.
- Avoid redundant data in visual elements.
Worksheets Provided
- Introduction: Overview of assessment details.
- Conceptual Model: Diagram of a decision tree representing the model structure.
- Data: Input parameters for the model, including clinical, cost, and outcome details.
Decision Problem
- Population: Patients admitted to hospital with suspected severe infection.
- Intervention: Adding a test to the clinical pathway to guide antibiotic use.
- Comparator: Existing clinical practice without the test.
- Outcomes: Costs, Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and incremental monetary net benefit (INMB).
Model Summary
- Structure: Decision tree.
- Time Horizon: 12 months.
- Perspective: Health care payer (Canadian dollars).
- Follow-up Periods:
- 1 Month: Assess outcomes post-hospital stay.
- 12 Months: Evaluate infection resolution and symptoms.
- Potential Patient States:
- Alive (with/without complications).
- Dead (with/without antibiotics)
Clinical Parameters
| Parameter | Value (Mean) | Standard Error | Notes |
| Mortality | |||
| Baseline (current practice) | 0.15 | 0.02 | 1-month follow-up |
| RR (Testing strategy) | 0.9 | 0.03 | |
| Mortality after complications | 0.3 | 0.06 | 12-month follow-up |
| Mortality (no complications) | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
| Complications | |||
| Baseline (current practice) | 0.25 | 0.04 | |
| RR (Testing strategy) | 0.75 | 0.12 | |
| Antibiotic Initiation | |||
| Baseline (current practice) | 0.85 | 0.07 | |
| RR (Testing strategy) | 0.65 | 0.09 |
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Cost Parameters (CAN $)
| Parameter | Value (Mean) | Standard Error | Notes |
| Testing Costs | $250.00 | NA | |
| Antibiotics | $50.00 | NA | |
| Inpatient Stay (Complications) | $17,500.00 | 500 | At 1 month |
| Inpatient Stay (Patient Died) | $12,500.00 | 350 | At 1 month |
| Inpatient Stay (No Complications) | $4,500.00 | 300 | At 1 month |
Outcome Parameters
| Parameter | Value (Mean) | Standard Error | Notes |
| Alive at 1 Month (QALY) | 0.1 | NA | |
| Alive at 12 Months (QALY) | 0.75 | NA | |
| QALY Decrement for Complications | -0.05 | NA |
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