The objective of this assignment is to conduct a time series regression analysis in order to understand the determinants of economic growth: Macroeconomics II, Group Assignment 1, UMS Malaysia

Objective

The objective of this assignment is to conduct a time series regression analysis in order to understand the determinants of economic growth. Through this analysis, students will gain insights into the relationships between economic variables and GDP growth in Malaysia.

Assignment Task

1. Data Collection

Obtain the required data from the DOSM, World Bank Databank, or any other reliable source. Ensure that the data includes the following variables:
– Dependent Variable:
– Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
– Independent Variables: (Students are free to choose, but must include the following)
– Government Expenditure
– Investment (Private or Public)
– Export and Import Levels
– Choose at least one additional independent variable of your choice.
Prepare the data for analysis, ensuring that it is in a suitable format for regression analysis.

2. Regression Analysis

– Run a time series regression with economic growth as the dependent variable.
– Choose appropriate independent variables based on economic theory and intuition.
– Discuss the economic rationale behind your choice of independent variables.
– Interpret the coefficients of the independent variables and assess their statistical significance.

3. Interpretation and Conclusion

– Interpret the results of the regression analysis. What does the coefficient of each independent variable signify?
– Assess the overall goodness-of-fit of the regression model (adjusted R squared).
– Evaluate the statistical significance of the independent variables.
– Discuss any potential limitations or shortcomings of the analysis.
– Draw conclusions regarding the determinants of economic growth based on the regression results.

4. Presentation

– Prepare a clear and concise report summarizing your findings.
– Include tables and graphs to illustrate the data and regression results.
– Write a coherent discussion of your analysis and interpretation of results.
– Format your report appropriately with an introduction, data collection, regression analysis, and interpretation and conclusion.
– Cite all relevant sources properly using a consistent APA citation style.
– Include the screenshot of the statistical output(s) in the appendix.

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